Election Results in Iowa

It's no surprise that Obama won Iowa by a healthy margin. 54 percent of voting Iowans chose Obama to make 819,670 votes. McCain pulled 45 percent of the vote with 678,466 ballots.
Secretary of State, Michael Mauro, reported that the number early voters and election-day voters reached 1,542,00. Over one-third of voters made ther decision early.

The way the votes fell is something to pay attention to. You could just about draw a vertical line down the state and the counties on the right side of the line were overwhelmingly for Obama and the counties on the left side for McCain, with the exception of Iowa county, which has a tie of 49-49 percent. If you take a look at the states to the right and left of Iowa, you will find your explanation for this. To the right is Illinois, which went to Obama. And to the left are Nebraska and South Dakota, which went to McCain. Although Obama's victory challenged the phenomenon of regional voting trends, the patterns of geography still hang on in tact; the North and East coast being predominantly left-leaning while the South and Northwest being predominantly right-leaning. The geographical split in Iowa could be attributed to this phenomenon. Overall, Obama won the support of the urban and more populated areas of Iowa, including the areas of Des Moiens, Cedar Rapids, and Davenport; all areas where Obama paid a visit over the past few weeks.

The exit polls in Iowa reflect the national trend. Of all voting males, 50 percent voted for Obama while 55 percent of voting females also voted for Obama.

How did Obama win Iowa? Simply the way he won the rest of the country. He had overwhelming support after wining the Iowa caucus earlier in the year which carried him through the summer and into the fall when he poured over twice as much money into T.V. ads than McCain, made frequent stops through out October, and targeted the middle class with the issue of the economy. The Bradley Effect had no effect on Obama so Iowa was a cake walk for Obama for several months.

And in Iowa's local election? Democratic Senator Tom Harkin won his fifth term and defeated Republican challenger Christopher Reed. Tom was a favorite candidate from early on, as an incumbent usually is. But the fundraising efforts also point to an obvious victory for Harkin because money = votes. In the 2007-2008 cycle, Harkin raised $4,188,215 in individual donations and his total receipts amounted to $6,063,261. Reed raised only $38,463 in individual donations and $53,785 in total receipts. These numbers were accrued over, but Harkin had overwhelming financial support from the start with $1,119,922 in cash on hand, while Reed had nothing.

Harkin had the cash needed to fund a major campaign, but he also had the looks. Harkin could be Reed's father. And although Obama's looks and charisma beat McCain's experience, Reed looks too green to challenge an experience, well-loved and well-funded Harkin.

Harkin's ads in Iowa left out no disadvantaged or hardworking citizen. In the ad below, we see veterans, cancer survivors, children, first responders, farmers (lots of them in Iowa). One thing to be noted is that there is no dialogue in this commercial. Harkin's campaigned cleverly used powerful, simple images choreagraphed with sentimental and hopeful music.

Compare this ad to one of Reed's. The quality disparity is almost pitiful. Reed tries to make up for quality by talking to Iowans with the national rhetoric surrounding the bail out plan, playing to Iowan's concern of the economy. But even that doesn't help him because he just talks too much.

Harkin's campaign reflects that of Obama's on a local level: there was a discipline message of a strong incumbent on whom Iowans can rely, evocative commercials, and loads of cash.

Iowa is a nearly solid blue state with Democratic Govern0r, Chet Culver and Senator Harkin, with the exception of Republican Charles Grassley who has held a senate seat for 28 years. His seat will be up in 2010 and if the Democrats do well over the next two years, Iowa could be completely blue.

And there there was one

Obama passed the Iowa caucuses with flying colors and this strong lead has carried him to today, one day before the election. Iowa will go Obama.

Despite talk of the Bradley Effect, several other factors give Obama an extra push.

First, he is soaring in the polls and has been since February.
Second, the Bradley Effect occurs almost like a fluke. Several other black candidates across the country have faced the Bradley Effect and beat it. It is a possible but no probable in Obama's case.
Third, Iowans are in the heart of the U.S., their trends mirror national trends. The economy is the most important issue in Iowa, and not national security. This is where Obama has an extreme edge over McCain.
Fourth, McCain finished only fourth in the Iowa Republican Caucuses, so he was not a favorite there to begin with.
And lastly, we know Obama's lead by McCain's campaign stops in Iowa. Just a few weeks ago, McCain has all but given up on Iowa. It would seem that giving up on Iowa would reinforce Obama's lead. But in fact, because McCain has been campaigning in Iowa shows he is getting nervous of Obama's lead. McCain is getting nervous in nearly every state, whether Obama is winning there or not. He does not want it to appear that he has lost Iowa, when he actually has.

Unless we have a UFO (unforeseen occurance), Iowa will go to Obama tomorrow.