It's no surprise that Obama won Iowa by a healthy margin. 54 percent of voting Iowans chose Obama to make 819,670 votes. McCain pulled 45 percent of the vote with 678,466 ballots.
Secretary of State, Michael Mauro, reported that the number early voters and election-day voters reached 1,542,00. Over one-third of voters made ther decision early.
The way the votes fell is something to pay attention to. You could just about draw a vertical line down the state and the counties on the right side of the line were overwhelmingly for Obama and the counties on the left side for McCain, with the exception of Iowa county, which has a tie of 49-49 percent. If you take a look at the states to the right and left of Iowa, you will find your explanation for this. To the right is Illinois, which went to Obama. And to the left are Nebraska and South Dakota, which went to McCain. Although Obama's victory challenged the phenomenon of regional voting trends, the patterns of geography still hang on in tact; the North and East coast being predominantly left-leaning while the South and Northwest being predominantly right-leaning. The geographical split in Iowa could be attributed to this phenomenon. Overall, Obama won the support of the urban and more populated areas of Iowa, including the areas of Des Moiens, Cedar Rapids, and Davenport; all areas where Obama paid a visit over the past few weeks.
The exit polls in Iowa reflect the national trend. Of all voting males, 50 percent voted for Obama while 55 percent of voting females also voted for Obama.
How did Obama win Iowa? Simply the way he won the rest of the country. He had overwhelming support after wining the Iowa caucus earlier in the year which carried him through the summer and into the fall when he poured over twice as much money into T.V. ads than McCain, made frequent stops through out October, and targeted the middle class with the issue of the economy. The Bradley Effect had no effect on Obama so Iowa was a cake walk for Obama for several months.
And in Iowa's local election? Democratic Senator Tom Harkin won his fifth term and defeated Republican challenger Christopher Reed. Tom was a favorite candidate from early on, as an incumbent usually is. But the fundraising efforts also point to an obvious victory for Harkin because money = votes. In the 2007-2008 cycle, Harkin raised $4,188,215 in individual donations and his total receipts amounted to $6,063,261. Reed raised only $38,463 in individual donations and $53,785 in total receipts. These numbers were accrued over, but Harkin had overwhelming financial support from the start with $1,119,922 in cash on hand, while Reed had nothing.
Harkin had the cash needed to fund a major campaign, but he also had the looks. Harkin could be Reed's father. And although Obama's looks and charisma beat McCain's experience, Reed looks too green to challenge an experience, well-loved and well-funded Harkin.
Harkin's ads in Iowa left out no disadvantaged or hardworking citizen. In the ad below, we see veterans, cancer survivors, children, first responders, farmers (lots of them in Iowa). One thing to be noted is that there is no dialogue in this commercial. Harkin's campaigned cleverly used powerful, simple images choreagraphed with sentimental and hopeful music.
Compare this ad to one of Reed's. The quality disparity is almost pitiful. Reed tries to make up for quality by talking to Iowans with the national rhetoric surrounding the bail out plan, playing to Iowan's concern of the economy. But even that doesn't help him because he just talks too much.
Harkin's campaign reflects that of Obama's on a local level: there was a discipline message of a strong incumbent on whom Iowans can rely, evocative commercials, and loads of cash.
Iowa is a nearly solid blue state with Democratic Govern0r, Chet Culver and Senator Harkin, with the exception of Republican Charles Grassley who has held a senate seat for 28 years. His seat will be up in 2010 and if the Democrats do well over the next two years, Iowa could be completely blue.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Monday, November 3, 2008
And there there was one
Obama passed the Iowa caucuses with flying colors and this strong lead has carried him to today, one day before the election. Iowa will go Obama.
Despite talk of the Bradley Effect, several other factors give Obama an extra push.
First, he is soaring in the polls and has been since February.
Second, the Bradley Effect occurs almost like a fluke. Several other black candidates across the country have faced the Bradley Effect and beat it. It is a possible but no probable in Obama's case.
Third, Iowans are in the heart of the U.S., their trends mirror national trends. The economy is the most important issue in Iowa, and not national security. This is where Obama has an extreme edge over McCain.
Fourth, McCain finished only fourth in the Iowa Republican Caucuses, so he was not a favorite there to begin with.
And lastly, we know Obama's lead by McCain's campaign stops in Iowa. Just a few weeks ago, McCain has all but given up on Iowa. It would seem that giving up on Iowa would reinforce Obama's lead. But in fact, because McCain has been campaigning in Iowa shows he is getting nervous of Obama's lead. McCain is getting nervous in nearly every state, whether Obama is winning there or not. He does not want it to appear that he has lost Iowa, when he actually has.
Unless we have a UFO (unforeseen occurance), Iowa will go to Obama tomorrow.
Despite talk of the Bradley Effect, several other factors give Obama an extra push.
First, he is soaring in the polls and has been since February.
Second, the Bradley Effect occurs almost like a fluke. Several other black candidates across the country have faced the Bradley Effect and beat it. It is a possible but no probable in Obama's case.
Third, Iowans are in the heart of the U.S., their trends mirror national trends. The economy is the most important issue in Iowa, and not national security. This is where Obama has an extreme edge over McCain.
Fourth, McCain finished only fourth in the Iowa Republican Caucuses, so he was not a favorite there to begin with.
And lastly, we know Obama's lead by McCain's campaign stops in Iowa. Just a few weeks ago, McCain has all but given up on Iowa. It would seem that giving up on Iowa would reinforce Obama's lead. But in fact, because McCain has been campaigning in Iowa shows he is getting nervous of Obama's lead. McCain is getting nervous in nearly every state, whether Obama is winning there or not. He does not want it to appear that he has lost Iowa, when he actually has.
Unless we have a UFO (unforeseen occurance), Iowa will go to Obama tomorrow.
Friday, October 31, 2008
"Four days."
"I've got two words for you, 'four days'," Obama said as he made his entry on to the stage in Des Moines, Iowa today. He spoke directly to Iowans, boosting their importance in this election by telling them that they have the power to determine this election.
The appearance in Iowa came the day after Obama aired his 30-minute commercial.
Iowa did not appear once in this ad, and the state has been decreasing in battle-ground status continually. So why is Obama still coming to Iowa? Maybe because John McCain is still campaigning here though, bracketing Obama's travel plans. Perhaps because that even a 10 point lead is not safe enough when considering the mysterious Bradley effect. It could also be that Iowa has historically picked the winner and this long-term status of being such an important state is not lost on either of the candidates, even though polls say that Obama is in a significant lead. An AP article points out that Obama will not let himself or his supporters become over-confident. He knows that his lead in the polls does not necessarily give him a win and he does not want over-confident supporters to think that the is gauranteed, which might actually prevent people from voting. McCain knows this too. One thing is for sure, Both McCain and Obama are not letting go of Iowa.
The appearance in Iowa came the day after Obama aired his 30-minute commercial.
Iowa did not appear once in this ad, and the state has been decreasing in battle-ground status continually. So why is Obama still coming to Iowa? Maybe because John McCain is still campaigning here though, bracketing Obama's travel plans. Perhaps because that even a 10 point lead is not safe enough when considering the mysterious Bradley effect. It could also be that Iowa has historically picked the winner and this long-term status of being such an important state is not lost on either of the candidates, even though polls say that Obama is in a significant lead. An AP article points out that Obama will not let himself or his supporters become over-confident. He knows that his lead in the polls does not necessarily give him a win and he does not want over-confident supporters to think that the is gauranteed, which might actually prevent people from voting. McCain knows this too. One thing is for sure, Both McCain and Obama are not letting go of Iowa.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Des Moines Register endorses Obama
This weekend, the Des Moines Register endorsed Obama for the presidency.
The Ed Board had this to say about its endorsment:
"Obama has earned the Register's endorsement for the presidency because of his steadfastness in the face of uncertainty, his clear-eyed vision for a more just America and his potential for rallying the country to do great things."
The Register approves of Obama's efforts to support the middle class while disapproves of McCain's "erratic" campaign, saying that he has given up on his principle values and plans in order to attack Obama and to earn a few points in the polls.
The Ed Board had this to say about its endorsment:
"Obama has earned the Register's endorsement for the presidency because of his steadfastness in the face of uncertainty, his clear-eyed vision for a more just America and his potential for rallying the country to do great things."
The Register approves of Obama's efforts to support the middle class while disapproves of McCain's "erratic" campaign, saying that he has given up on his principle values and plans in order to attack Obama and to earn a few points in the polls.
McCain on and off the bus in Iowa
Despite talk of Iowa no longer being a battle-ground state and of McCain pulling out resources, he and Palin continue to make appearances there. McCain made stops in Cedar Falls and Waterloo last Saturday and Sunday while Palin stopped in Des Moines and Sioux City.
Republicans and Democrats alike are baffled.
"I can't believe they would spend any time in Iowa at all," commented Joe Gaylord, former executive director of the Iowa Republican Party.
McCain says that he is "doing fine."
But officials in the campaign say that the state is more competitive than is portrayed through the media.
McCain's Iowa campaign chairman, Dave Roederer, says that even though they are behind in the polls, they are still "within striking distance." Obama is up in the polls by about 12 percent. Last cycle, Bush was leading Iowa by only one percentage point and ended up getting all the state's electoral votes. Perhaps McCain feels like he has to defend the states that Bush won in 2004.
Republicans and Democrats alike are baffled.
"I can't believe they would spend any time in Iowa at all," commented Joe Gaylord, former executive director of the Iowa Republican Party.
McCain says that he is "doing fine."
But officials in the campaign say that the state is more competitive than is portrayed through the media.
McCain's Iowa campaign chairman, Dave Roederer, says that even though they are behind in the polls, they are still "within striking distance." Obama is up in the polls by about 12 percent. Last cycle, Bush was leading Iowa by only one percentage point and ended up getting all the state's electoral votes. Perhaps McCain feels like he has to defend the states that Bush won in 2004.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
10 days to election
What is going on in Iowa with only 10 days until the big day?
Obama is still well ahead in the polls. Pollster.com averages the results with support for Obama at 53.3 percent and for McCain at 41.8 percent. The latest Rasmussen poll on October 23 resulted in a slimmer margin: McCain with 44 percent who would vote for him and Obama with 52 percent. In a second question, Iowans were asked questions to gauge the candidates favorability. The results show Obama with a high favorability rating of 44 percent and a moderate favorability rating of 12 percent and McCain with a high favorability rating of only 28 percent and a moderate favorability rating of 23 percent.
The Rasmussen poll revealed that the issues of the economy, with 44 percent, and national security, with 22 percent are most important to Iowans.
Iowa tends reflects the national sentiments toward both candidates, important issues and the Bush administration. From the 1996 presidential eletion to last cycle, Iowa's state winner has also been the national winner. Iowa seems to be a good representation of the rest of the country and with Obama in the lead here, one could bet that Obama will also take nation.
Last week, McCain's top officials implied that Iowa was no longer a battleground state by stating they would be focusing on other states such as Florida, Nevada and Colorado. But just before that, McCain had not completely given up on the state. On Sunday, October 11 he made a visit to Davenport, where Obama was also scheduled to speak before he cancelled to visit his ailing grandmother. McCain's rally did not go so smoothly, as can be expected with his low popularity. An anti-war protestor infiltrated the crowd and during McCain's speach, she held up a sign that said "War is Over," while yelling, "We want peace!" The security did not get to her before the audience did, who ripped down her sign and tried to silence her.
Money has been a hot topic recently. Last week, Obama broke the historical record for fund raising. $371,088 came from donations in Iowa. McCain has raised only $22,448 in Iowa, which is partially beause of campaign finance.
As the election day gets closer, campaign efforts seem to be inching closer to satellite voting stations at college campuses. John Kerry and Howard Dean stumped for Obama at "early voting rallies" in Des Moines and Ames, which is home to Iowa State.
Local elections this cycle include one U.S. Senate seat between Republican, Christopher Reed, and Democrat and incumbent, Tom Harkin, five U.S. Representative seats, and a majority of state legistlature seats.
A Real Clear Politics poll shows Harkin with 55.8 percent and Reed with only 37.5 percent.
With Obama on the top of the Democratic ticket, the expected large turn out of Democratic voters may also put the state Democrats into office. Obama is not only pushing for a presidential campaign, but is also working to put more Democrats into Congress.
Advertisements in Iowa, as well is in most other battle ground states, were highly negative. Here are a few videos, which have aired in Iowa over the past few weeks.
This ad was sponsored by the DNC:
McCain aired this positive and futuristic ad in just about all 50 states:
The Obama/Biden campaign produced this video:
McCain aired this slightly more negative yet hopeful ad:
Obama is still well ahead in the polls. Pollster.com averages the results with support for Obama at 53.3 percent and for McCain at 41.8 percent. The latest Rasmussen poll on October 23 resulted in a slimmer margin: McCain with 44 percent who would vote for him and Obama with 52 percent. In a second question, Iowans were asked questions to gauge the candidates favorability. The results show Obama with a high favorability rating of 44 percent and a moderate favorability rating of 12 percent and McCain with a high favorability rating of only 28 percent and a moderate favorability rating of 23 percent.
The Rasmussen poll revealed that the issues of the economy, with 44 percent, and national security, with 22 percent are most important to Iowans.
Iowa tends reflects the national sentiments toward both candidates, important issues and the Bush administration. From the 1996 presidential eletion to last cycle, Iowa's state winner has also been the national winner. Iowa seems to be a good representation of the rest of the country and with Obama in the lead here, one could bet that Obama will also take nation.
Last week, McCain's top officials implied that Iowa was no longer a battleground state by stating they would be focusing on other states such as Florida, Nevada and Colorado. But just before that, McCain had not completely given up on the state. On Sunday, October 11 he made a visit to Davenport, where Obama was also scheduled to speak before he cancelled to visit his ailing grandmother. McCain's rally did not go so smoothly, as can be expected with his low popularity. An anti-war protestor infiltrated the crowd and during McCain's speach, she held up a sign that said "War is Over," while yelling, "We want peace!" The security did not get to her before the audience did, who ripped down her sign and tried to silence her.
Money has been a hot topic recently. Last week, Obama broke the historical record for fund raising. $371,088 came from donations in Iowa. McCain has raised only $22,448 in Iowa, which is partially beause of campaign finance.
As the election day gets closer, campaign efforts seem to be inching closer to satellite voting stations at college campuses. John Kerry and Howard Dean stumped for Obama at "early voting rallies" in Des Moines and Ames, which is home to Iowa State.
Local elections this cycle include one U.S. Senate seat between Republican, Christopher Reed, and Democrat and incumbent, Tom Harkin, five U.S. Representative seats, and a majority of state legistlature seats.
A Real Clear Politics poll shows Harkin with 55.8 percent and Reed with only 37.5 percent.
With Obama on the top of the Democratic ticket, the expected large turn out of Democratic voters may also put the state Democrats into office. Obama is not only pushing for a presidential campaign, but is also working to put more Democrats into Congress.
Advertisements in Iowa, as well is in most other battle ground states, were highly negative. Here are a few videos, which have aired in Iowa over the past few weeks.
This ad was sponsored by the DNC:
McCain aired this positive and futuristic ad in just about all 50 states:
The Obama/Biden campaign produced this video:
McCain aired this slightly more negative yet hopeful ad:
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Underdogs ducks out
With Obama rising in the polls in Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico, CNN reported that top officials in the McCain campaign have alluded to pulling resources out of these states to focus on states like Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Obama halts campaign
Obama will stop all campagining this week visit his ailing grandmother in Hawaii. Obama's planned events in Des Moines, Iowa and Madison, Wisconsin this Thursday are cancelled
Monday, October 20, 2008
Obama in Iowa this week
Obama will make hist first campaign stop in Des Moines, Iowa since August 25 this Thursday. The time and location are not yet specified.
The trip announcement came after the new of Obama's record-shattering fundraising.
Obama won the Iowa caucus and since then he has had a significant lead in the state. The security of Iowa has allowed him to concentrate on riskier battleground states. Perhaps Obama is making the long-awaited trip back to Iowa to show his gratitude, or to make sure that the momentum of his supporters in Iowa continues through to the voting booth.
The trip announcement came after the new of Obama's record-shattering fundraising.
Obama won the Iowa caucus and since then he has had a significant lead in the state. The security of Iowa has allowed him to concentrate on riskier battleground states. Perhaps Obama is making the long-awaited trip back to Iowa to show his gratitude, or to make sure that the momentum of his supporters in Iowa continues through to the voting booth.
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Confusion over candidates' faiths
In the University of Iowa Hawkeye poll, a mix of independents, republicans and democrats were asked questions about McCain's and Obama's religious affiliations.
When asked in an open-ended question what McCain's religion is, 51.7 percent answered correctly that he is protestant while 37 percent were unsure.
When asked in an open-ended question what Obama's religion is, 55 percent answered correctly that he is also protestant, while 33.4 percent were unsure and 8.4 said he was Muslim.
When asked in an open-ended question what McCain's religion is, 51.7 percent answered correctly that he is protestant while 37 percent were unsure.
When asked in an open-ended question what Obama's religion is, 55 percent answered correctly that he is also protestant, while 33.4 percent were unsure and 8.4 said he was Muslim.
Monday, October 13, 2008
The God Factor
Senator John McCain made a stop in Davenport, Iowa this past Saturday, October 11 but it is not his speech that is resonating across the news, it is the prayer given by Rev. Arnold Conrad.
To have prayer at a political rally is not uncommon. Both candidates publicly ascribe to Christianity as do most of their supporters. To pray for the protection and energy of the candidate is also common. But can a prayer become politically incorrect? Rev. Arnold Conrad got a little too close to Christian supremacy in his opening prayer at the Davenport rally. The most controversial line of his speech goes as follows:
"I would also pray Lord that your reputation is involved in all that happens between now and November, because there are millions of people around this world praying to their God -- whether it's Hindu, Buddha, Allah -- that his [McCain’s] opponent wins for a variety of reasons.
And Lord I pray that you would guard your own reputation, because they’re going to think that their god is bigger than you, if that happens. So I pray that you would step forward and honor your own name in all that happens between now and Election Day."
The Reverend seems to imply Christian supremacy and that the Christian god is on McCain's side. Even if the Christian god is so much bigger and powerful on the cosmic playground, isn't Obama also Christian (despite allegations that he is Muslim)? So who gets to lay claims on the Holy Trinity? According to the Reverend, that battle will be decided on election day.
Compare this prayer to a closing praryer at the DNC, given by Donald Miller. Miller asks for bi-partisan guidance and justice as well as unity through diversity. He does pray to Jesus and the Father but never does he ask for Obama's election to the white house.
No one will deny that Christianity is the dominant religion in the U.S., however some of the most controversial issues combine faith and politics: Same-sex marriage, abortion, a tablet of the Ten Commandments in court houses, prayer in school. There is a reason why so many people throw up their arms in protest or shock when religion is mixed with politics: we pride ourselves on the separation of church and state. The First Amendment is challenged when our political leaders or laws begin to favor a particular religion - which so often happens to be Christianity.
Political leaders can be Christians (or Muslim or Hindu or atheists) with out belittling other religions, forcing religious tenants on a diverse population or asking god to choose sides. In fact, political leaders must do the opposite in order to preserve the First Amendment, which we pride as one of our most important civic tenants.
Still vying for Iowa
Despite the talk that Iowa is becoming less of a battle-ground state, McCain made a stop in Davenport on Saturday, October 11. The appearance came after an announcement that the campaign will add 16 more offices to the state.
Both candidates have spent less money on T.V. ads in Iowa than Wisconsin, another contested state. McCain spent 227,000 dollars in Iowa from September 28 - October 4, compared to 896,000 dollars in Wisconsin. Obama spent 172,000 dollars in Iowa and 1.2 million dollars in Wisconsin.
Obama has kept a lead in Iowa for nearly the entire year, however McCain has spent significantly more money on T.V. ads than Obama.
The election is 22 days out and Obama leads the polls in Iowa by 12 points - McCain clearly has not given up on this Midwestern state.
Both candidates have spent less money on T.V. ads in Iowa than Wisconsin, another contested state. McCain spent 227,000 dollars in Iowa from September 28 - October 4, compared to 896,000 dollars in Wisconsin. Obama spent 172,000 dollars in Iowa and 1.2 million dollars in Wisconsin.
Obama has kept a lead in Iowa for nearly the entire year, however McCain has spent significantly more money on T.V. ads than Obama.
The election is 22 days out and Obama leads the polls in Iowa by 12 points - McCain clearly has not given up on this Midwestern state.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Get Nasty
After McCain dropped Michigan from his campaign, the Republican focus shifted heavily to Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire and New Mexico. Iowa excluded.
As Obama continues a strong lead in Iowa, it's battleground status fades away. So what is left of Iowa? An arena for negative ads.
Across the nation, the amount of negative ads coming from both Obama and McCain are very close in number. From June 3 (end of primaries) to September 7 this year, Obama's negative ads numbered 75,246 and McCain had 76,238.
During this time, according to a report published by the Nielsen Wire, the total number of negative ads in Iowa from Obama and 527s reached 3,170.The total number from McCain and 527s reached 7,172 - that is nearly double the amount of negative ads coming from Obama and Obama supporters.
The study ended over a month ago and the election is hotter than ever. With Obama in the lead in Iowa we can expect to see far more negative ads coming from the McCain camp and McCain-supporting 527.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Obama beats 2004 polling benchmarks
This time last cycle Bush was leading in Iowa by a one-percent margin. Currently, Obama takes the lead by 9.4 percent.
New Mexico shows the same pattern; Bush was up by about one percent in 2004 and now Obama is up McCain by 7.2 percent.
Bush took both state in 2004, but Iowa and New Mexico will most likely go to Obama in November.
New Mexico shows the same pattern; Bush was up by about one percent in 2004 and now Obama is up McCain by 7.2 percent.
Bush took both state in 2004, but Iowa and New Mexico will most likely go to Obama in November.
Sunday, October 5, 2008
Early voting varies across the state.
Early voting in Iowa has yet to show a steady pattern of increase or decrease compared to this time last cycle. Some counties have seen an increase in absentee ballots while others have not had as many requests as this time in 2004.
Residents of Carroll County more eager than ever to vote, according to the county's auditor, Joan Schettler. She states that since September 25, over 676 absentee ballots have already been requested. This number may seem small, but the entire county has a little over 20,000 residents (and just over 14,000 are elligable to vote) and the election is still five weeks away.
Voters explain their reasons for voting early as a way to avoid bad weather, long lines and it frees up their schedule that day to help GOTV campaigns.
The Polk County Auditor's Office has already had 14,000 requests for absentee ballots but that is 21,000 less than this time in 2004, according to MSNBC in DesMoines.
In 2004, several factors accounted for the 2% margin giving Bush the presidency: Bush running as an incumbent during war-time and John Kerry's fatal mistake of not adequately responding to the Swiftboat ads. The 2004 election was extremely close and the American public was deeply devided between Bush and Kerry and although the American public seems to be just as divided between McCain and Obama, perhaps the patchy early-voting rates in Iowa are a reflection that many people have still not made up their minds and are not ready to vote for either candidate yet.
Residents of Carroll County more eager than ever to vote, according to the county's auditor, Joan Schettler. She states that since September 25, over 676 absentee ballots have already been requested. This number may seem small, but the entire county has a little over 20,000 residents (and just over 14,000 are elligable to vote) and the election is still five weeks away.
Voters explain their reasons for voting early as a way to avoid bad weather, long lines and it frees up their schedule that day to help GOTV campaigns.
The Polk County Auditor's Office has already had 14,000 requests for absentee ballots but that is 21,000 less than this time in 2004, according to MSNBC in DesMoines.
In 2004, several factors accounted for the 2% margin giving Bush the presidency: Bush running as an incumbent during war-time and John Kerry's fatal mistake of not adequately responding to the Swiftboat ads. The 2004 election was extremely close and the American public was deeply devided between Bush and Kerry and although the American public seems to be just as divided between McCain and Obama, perhaps the patchy early-voting rates in Iowa are a reflection that many people have still not made up their minds and are not ready to vote for either candidate yet.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Democrats on the rise
Across the state there are 102,348 more registered Democrats that registered Republicans. In 2004 during this time, the Republicans lead by over 7,000 votes, according to David Yepsen at the DesMoines Register. With the rise of registered Democrats and Obama ahead in the polls by nine percent, Yepsen forsees a significant growth of influence for the Democrats in Iowa for the next few years.
The Iowa arena increaslingly leans toward Obama. From the 50-day benchmark of the election cycle, Obama's chances of taking Iowa has inreased each day. One contigency factor is the Bradley Effect, which may pop it's ugly head up in several states this fall.
The Iowa arena increaslingly leans toward Obama. From the 50-day benchmark of the election cycle, Obama's chances of taking Iowa has inreased each day. One contigency factor is the Bradley Effect, which may pop it's ugly head up in several states this fall.
Early voting in Iowa increases at moderate pace
Last Thursday, September, September 25 was Iowa's first day of early voting and a mass of citizens have shown a desire to cast their ballots ahead of time. In the 2004 general election, 460,000 votes were cast early out of 1.5 million total. This year, 104,000 early ballots have already been requested across the state, which is actuallya slight decrease compared to 2004.
But early voting has increased this cycle compared to 2004 in Johnson County . A total of 154 people came to the office to cast ballots compared to 84 people on the first day of voting in 2004.
Another 278 people voted at an early bird satellite site at the Iowa City Public Library compared to 146 at the site four years ago.
But early voting has increased this cycle compared to 2004 in Johnson County . A total of 154 people came to the office to cast ballots compared to 84 people on the first day of voting in 2004.
Another 278 people voted at an early bird satellite site at the Iowa City Public Library compared to 146 at the site four years ago.
Friday, September 26, 2008
College students vote early via satellite
Who said student's don't care?
Politically active students at Luther College in are working hard to register their peers and make it easier for them to vote this cycle. These students have set up tables around campus and visited all the residence halls, encouraging students to vote early through a new satellite system on campus.
Satellite voting is an increasing trend this year, especially with an expected increase in voter turnout. The purpose is to give easier access to early voters, avoiding the process of getting an absentee ballot or not being able to make it to the polls on November 2. Sites include universities, libraries and other public places.
By setting up an early-vote system via satellite, students can no longer claim that it is too difficult to vote by absentee ballots, nor can they claim that they didn't know about the system.
The early satellite vote at Luther College will take place October 7.
“The advantage is obvious: voting turnouts in America have been low for some time and the argument is that with fewer barriers more people will vote,” says John Moeller, professor of political science and director of Ethics and Public Life. “This is true for a lot of groups but certainly applies to college students if there is a satellite spot set up on campus.”
The biggest concern with the satellite system is that the voting process is slipping towards privatization and away from a public initiative. Voting should be compelling process, in which all able Americans take part. But with low voter turnout (even with the expected increase this year, the numbers certainly won't break 50%), how else do we as a society encourage voting? Do we acquiesce to apathy and increase voting with the risk of privatization or do we continue with out-dated but more participatory methods? Should only those people with the greatest desire to vote get the chance or do we uphold our value that all citizens should have the right and the access to vote?
Politically active students at Luther College in are working hard to register their peers and make it easier for them to vote this cycle. These students have set up tables around campus and visited all the residence halls, encouraging students to vote early through a new satellite system on campus.
Satellite voting is an increasing trend this year, especially with an expected increase in voter turnout. The purpose is to give easier access to early voters, avoiding the process of getting an absentee ballot or not being able to make it to the polls on November 2. Sites include universities, libraries and other public places.
By setting up an early-vote system via satellite, students can no longer claim that it is too difficult to vote by absentee ballots, nor can they claim that they didn't know about the system.
The early satellite vote at Luther College will take place October 7.
“The advantage is obvious: voting turnouts in America have been low for some time and the argument is that with fewer barriers more people will vote,” says John Moeller, professor of political science and director of Ethics and Public Life. “This is true for a lot of groups but certainly applies to college students if there is a satellite spot set up on campus.”
The biggest concern with the satellite system is that the voting process is slipping towards privatization and away from a public initiative. Voting should be compelling process, in which all able Americans take part. But with low voter turnout (even with the expected increase this year, the numbers certainly won't break 50%), how else do we as a society encourage voting? Do we acquiesce to apathy and increase voting with the risk of privatization or do we continue with out-dated but more participatory methods? Should only those people with the greatest desire to vote get the chance or do we uphold our value that all citizens should have the right and the access to vote?
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Bradley Effect
A simple and truthful comment from Kathleen Sebelius, governor of Kansas and and early supporter of Obama, has brought back a painful realization that Democrats have kept away in the back of their minds: The Bradley Effect.
At a local library in Iowa last Tuesday, September 16 Sebelius honestly called forth the issue that Obama is part Black and this may prove to be a deal breaker for many voters, and a possible reason why the race in the Midwest is so close between Obama and McCain.
If the polls in Iowa are too close on election day, it is a possiblity that Obama's points in the polls will not be a solid indicator of his lead, that the Bradley effect will be a mask on McCain's actual lead.
Sebelius was only being honest, recognizing an unfortunate fact in American politics, but the GOP has jumped all over her comment and made her out to be "divisive." Christian Morgan, the executive director of the Kansas GOP, claims that Sebelius is playing a political game to take the focus off real political issues, that she is "off her rocker".
If some Americans still have issues with an African American (or woman) president, then the issue of race and gender are still prevelenat political problems. Presidential campaigning needs some veracity and Sebelius was not afraid to rock the boat with an uncomfortable truth.
At a local library in Iowa last Tuesday, September 16 Sebelius honestly called forth the issue that Obama is part Black and this may prove to be a deal breaker for many voters, and a possible reason why the race in the Midwest is so close between Obama and McCain.
If the polls in Iowa are too close on election day, it is a possiblity that Obama's points in the polls will not be a solid indicator of his lead, that the Bradley effect will be a mask on McCain's actual lead.
Sebelius was only being honest, recognizing an unfortunate fact in American politics, but the GOP has jumped all over her comment and made her out to be "divisive." Christian Morgan, the executive director of the Kansas GOP, claims that Sebelius is playing a political game to take the focus off real political issues, that she is "off her rocker".
If some Americans still have issues with an African American (or woman) president, then the issue of race and gender are still prevelenat political problems. Presidential campaigning needs some veracity and Sebelius was not afraid to rock the boat with an uncomfortable truth.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
50 Days to General Election
Iowa was a battle ground state for the 2004 presidential election. This cycle, whether the state will go blue or red is still up in the air, however currently Iowa is leaning toward Obama.
1996 General Election Results
Dole/Kemp (R) with 492,644 votes
Clinton/Gore (D) with 620,258 *State and national winner
2000 General Election Results
Bush/Cheney (R) with 634,373 votes
Gore/Lieberman (D) with 638,517 votes *State and national winner
2004 General Election Restults
Bush/Cheney (R) with 751,967 votes *State and national winner
Kerry/Edwards (D) with 741,898 votes
Iowa is another state that has a mix of Democrats and Republicans in national and executive seats.
Current democratic governor, Chet Cluver, was elected in 2006 and will be up in 2011. Senator
Tom Harkin has been a steadfast Democrat in Iowa. Harkin was first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 1974, and has been a U.S. Senator since 1984. His fourth full term will be up this cycle. Harkin and Obama have been allies in the Senate, working on raising standards for renewable fuel. Harkin officially endorsed Obama during the primaries. Harkin also claims that Obama is a "friend" to Iowa agriculture. Harkin's cornerstone for re-election this year is his Rural Agenda campaign. With agriculture one of Iowa's largest concerns, this endorsement coming from a current and running Senator certainly adds a boost to Obama's campaign in this state.
Republican Charles Grassley holds the other Senate seat. Elected in 1980, his fourth full term will be up in 2010. Grassley is another steadfast politician in Iowa; he was elected to the Iowa House of Representatives over half a century ago in 1958.
1996 General Election Results
Dole/Kemp (R) with 492,644 votes
Clinton/Gore (D) with 620,258 *State and national winner
2000 General Election Results
Bush/Cheney (R) with 634,373 votes
Gore/Lieberman (D) with 638,517 votes *State and national winner
2004 General Election Restults
Bush/Cheney (R) with 751,967 votes *State and national winner
Kerry/Edwards (D) with 741,898 votes
Iowa is another state that has a mix of Democrats and Republicans in national and executive seats.
Current democratic governor, Chet Cluver, was elected in 2006 and will be up in 2011. Senator
Tom Harkin has been a steadfast Democrat in Iowa. Harkin was first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 1974, and has been a U.S. Senator since 1984. His fourth full term will be up this cycle. Harkin and Obama have been allies in the Senate, working on raising standards for renewable fuel. Harkin officially endorsed Obama during the primaries. Harkin also claims that Obama is a "friend" to Iowa agriculture. Harkin's cornerstone for re-election this year is his Rural Agenda campaign. With agriculture one of Iowa's largest concerns, this endorsement coming from a current and running Senator certainly adds a boost to Obama's campaign in this state.
Republican Charles Grassley holds the other Senate seat. Elected in 1980, his fourth full term will be up in 2010. Grassley is another steadfast politician in Iowa; he was elected to the Iowa House of Representatives over half a century ago in 1958.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
