It's no surprise that Obama won Iowa by a healthy margin. 54 percent of voting Iowans chose Obama to make 819,670 votes. McCain pulled 45 percent of the vote with 678,466 ballots.
Secretary of State, Michael Mauro, reported that the number early voters and election-day voters reached 1,542,00. Over one-third of voters made ther decision early.
The way the votes fell is something to pay attention to. You could just about draw a vertical line down the state and the counties on the right side of the line were overwhelmingly for Obama and the counties on the left side for McCain, with the exception of Iowa county, which has a tie of 49-49 percent. If you take a look at the states to the right and left of Iowa, you will find your explanation for this. To the right is Illinois, which went to Obama. And to the left are Nebraska and South Dakota, which went to McCain. Although Obama's victory challenged the phenomenon of regional voting trends, the patterns of geography still hang on in tact; the North and East coast being predominantly left-leaning while the South and Northwest being predominantly right-leaning. The geographical split in Iowa could be attributed to this phenomenon. Overall, Obama won the support of the urban and more populated areas of Iowa, including the areas of Des Moiens, Cedar Rapids, and Davenport; all areas where Obama paid a visit over the past few weeks.
The exit polls in Iowa reflect the national trend. Of all voting males, 50 percent voted for Obama while 55 percent of voting females also voted for Obama.
How did Obama win Iowa? Simply the way he won the rest of the country. He had overwhelming support after wining the Iowa caucus earlier in the year which carried him through the summer and into the fall when he poured over twice as much money into T.V. ads than McCain, made frequent stops through out October, and targeted the middle class with the issue of the economy. The Bradley Effect had no effect on Obama so Iowa was a cake walk for Obama for several months.
And in Iowa's local election? Democratic Senator Tom Harkin won his fifth term and defeated Republican challenger Christopher Reed. Tom was a favorite candidate from early on, as an incumbent usually is. But the fundraising efforts also point to an obvious victory for Harkin because money = votes. In the 2007-2008 cycle, Harkin raised $4,188,215 in individual donations and his total receipts amounted to $6,063,261. Reed raised only $38,463 in individual donations and $53,785 in total receipts. These numbers were accrued over, but Harkin had overwhelming financial support from the start with $1,119,922 in cash on hand, while Reed had nothing.
Harkin had the cash needed to fund a major campaign, but he also had the looks. Harkin could be Reed's father. And although Obama's looks and charisma beat McCain's experience, Reed looks too green to challenge an experience, well-loved and well-funded Harkin.
Harkin's ads in Iowa left out no disadvantaged or hardworking citizen. In the ad below, we see veterans, cancer survivors, children, first responders, farmers (lots of them in Iowa). One thing to be noted is that there is no dialogue in this commercial. Harkin's campaigned cleverly used powerful, simple images choreagraphed with sentimental and hopeful music.
Compare this ad to one of Reed's. The quality disparity is almost pitiful. Reed tries to make up for quality by talking to Iowans with the national rhetoric surrounding the bail out plan, playing to Iowan's concern of the economy. But even that doesn't help him because he just talks too much.
Harkin's campaign reflects that of Obama's on a local level: there was a discipline message of a strong incumbent on whom Iowans can rely, evocative commercials, and loads of cash.
Iowa is a nearly solid blue state with Democratic Govern0r, Chet Culver and Senator Harkin, with the exception of Republican Charles Grassley who has held a senate seat for 28 years. His seat will be up in 2010 and if the Democrats do well over the next two years, Iowa could be completely blue.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Monday, November 3, 2008
And there there was one
Obama passed the Iowa caucuses with flying colors and this strong lead has carried him to today, one day before the election. Iowa will go Obama.
Despite talk of the Bradley Effect, several other factors give Obama an extra push.
First, he is soaring in the polls and has been since February.
Second, the Bradley Effect occurs almost like a fluke. Several other black candidates across the country have faced the Bradley Effect and beat it. It is a possible but no probable in Obama's case.
Third, Iowans are in the heart of the U.S., their trends mirror national trends. The economy is the most important issue in Iowa, and not national security. This is where Obama has an extreme edge over McCain.
Fourth, McCain finished only fourth in the Iowa Republican Caucuses, so he was not a favorite there to begin with.
And lastly, we know Obama's lead by McCain's campaign stops in Iowa. Just a few weeks ago, McCain has all but given up on Iowa. It would seem that giving up on Iowa would reinforce Obama's lead. But in fact, because McCain has been campaigning in Iowa shows he is getting nervous of Obama's lead. McCain is getting nervous in nearly every state, whether Obama is winning there or not. He does not want it to appear that he has lost Iowa, when he actually has.
Unless we have a UFO (unforeseen occurance), Iowa will go to Obama tomorrow.
Despite talk of the Bradley Effect, several other factors give Obama an extra push.
First, he is soaring in the polls and has been since February.
Second, the Bradley Effect occurs almost like a fluke. Several other black candidates across the country have faced the Bradley Effect and beat it. It is a possible but no probable in Obama's case.
Third, Iowans are in the heart of the U.S., their trends mirror national trends. The economy is the most important issue in Iowa, and not national security. This is where Obama has an extreme edge over McCain.
Fourth, McCain finished only fourth in the Iowa Republican Caucuses, so he was not a favorite there to begin with.
And lastly, we know Obama's lead by McCain's campaign stops in Iowa. Just a few weeks ago, McCain has all but given up on Iowa. It would seem that giving up on Iowa would reinforce Obama's lead. But in fact, because McCain has been campaigning in Iowa shows he is getting nervous of Obama's lead. McCain is getting nervous in nearly every state, whether Obama is winning there or not. He does not want it to appear that he has lost Iowa, when he actually has.
Unless we have a UFO (unforeseen occurance), Iowa will go to Obama tomorrow.
Friday, October 31, 2008
"Four days."
"I've got two words for you, 'four days'," Obama said as he made his entry on to the stage in Des Moines, Iowa today. He spoke directly to Iowans, boosting their importance in this election by telling them that they have the power to determine this election.
The appearance in Iowa came the day after Obama aired his 30-minute commercial.
Iowa did not appear once in this ad, and the state has been decreasing in battle-ground status continually. So why is Obama still coming to Iowa? Maybe because John McCain is still campaigning here though, bracketing Obama's travel plans. Perhaps because that even a 10 point lead is not safe enough when considering the mysterious Bradley effect. It could also be that Iowa has historically picked the winner and this long-term status of being such an important state is not lost on either of the candidates, even though polls say that Obama is in a significant lead. An AP article points out that Obama will not let himself or his supporters become over-confident. He knows that his lead in the polls does not necessarily give him a win and he does not want over-confident supporters to think that the is gauranteed, which might actually prevent people from voting. McCain knows this too. One thing is for sure, Both McCain and Obama are not letting go of Iowa.
The appearance in Iowa came the day after Obama aired his 30-minute commercial.
Iowa did not appear once in this ad, and the state has been decreasing in battle-ground status continually. So why is Obama still coming to Iowa? Maybe because John McCain is still campaigning here though, bracketing Obama's travel plans. Perhaps because that even a 10 point lead is not safe enough when considering the mysterious Bradley effect. It could also be that Iowa has historically picked the winner and this long-term status of being such an important state is not lost on either of the candidates, even though polls say that Obama is in a significant lead. An AP article points out that Obama will not let himself or his supporters become over-confident. He knows that his lead in the polls does not necessarily give him a win and he does not want over-confident supporters to think that the is gauranteed, which might actually prevent people from voting. McCain knows this too. One thing is for sure, Both McCain and Obama are not letting go of Iowa.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Des Moines Register endorses Obama
This weekend, the Des Moines Register endorsed Obama for the presidency.
The Ed Board had this to say about its endorsment:
"Obama has earned the Register's endorsement for the presidency because of his steadfastness in the face of uncertainty, his clear-eyed vision for a more just America and his potential for rallying the country to do great things."
The Register approves of Obama's efforts to support the middle class while disapproves of McCain's "erratic" campaign, saying that he has given up on his principle values and plans in order to attack Obama and to earn a few points in the polls.
The Ed Board had this to say about its endorsment:
"Obama has earned the Register's endorsement for the presidency because of his steadfastness in the face of uncertainty, his clear-eyed vision for a more just America and his potential for rallying the country to do great things."
The Register approves of Obama's efforts to support the middle class while disapproves of McCain's "erratic" campaign, saying that he has given up on his principle values and plans in order to attack Obama and to earn a few points in the polls.
McCain on and off the bus in Iowa
Despite talk of Iowa no longer being a battle-ground state and of McCain pulling out resources, he and Palin continue to make appearances there. McCain made stops in Cedar Falls and Waterloo last Saturday and Sunday while Palin stopped in Des Moines and Sioux City.
Republicans and Democrats alike are baffled.
"I can't believe they would spend any time in Iowa at all," commented Joe Gaylord, former executive director of the Iowa Republican Party.
McCain says that he is "doing fine."
But officials in the campaign say that the state is more competitive than is portrayed through the media.
McCain's Iowa campaign chairman, Dave Roederer, says that even though they are behind in the polls, they are still "within striking distance." Obama is up in the polls by about 12 percent. Last cycle, Bush was leading Iowa by only one percentage point and ended up getting all the state's electoral votes. Perhaps McCain feels like he has to defend the states that Bush won in 2004.
Republicans and Democrats alike are baffled.
"I can't believe they would spend any time in Iowa at all," commented Joe Gaylord, former executive director of the Iowa Republican Party.
McCain says that he is "doing fine."
But officials in the campaign say that the state is more competitive than is portrayed through the media.
McCain's Iowa campaign chairman, Dave Roederer, says that even though they are behind in the polls, they are still "within striking distance." Obama is up in the polls by about 12 percent. Last cycle, Bush was leading Iowa by only one percentage point and ended up getting all the state's electoral votes. Perhaps McCain feels like he has to defend the states that Bush won in 2004.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
10 days to election
What is going on in Iowa with only 10 days until the big day?
Obama is still well ahead in the polls. Pollster.com averages the results with support for Obama at 53.3 percent and for McCain at 41.8 percent. The latest Rasmussen poll on October 23 resulted in a slimmer margin: McCain with 44 percent who would vote for him and Obama with 52 percent. In a second question, Iowans were asked questions to gauge the candidates favorability. The results show Obama with a high favorability rating of 44 percent and a moderate favorability rating of 12 percent and McCain with a high favorability rating of only 28 percent and a moderate favorability rating of 23 percent.
The Rasmussen poll revealed that the issues of the economy, with 44 percent, and national security, with 22 percent are most important to Iowans.
Iowa tends reflects the national sentiments toward both candidates, important issues and the Bush administration. From the 1996 presidential eletion to last cycle, Iowa's state winner has also been the national winner. Iowa seems to be a good representation of the rest of the country and with Obama in the lead here, one could bet that Obama will also take nation.
Last week, McCain's top officials implied that Iowa was no longer a battleground state by stating they would be focusing on other states such as Florida, Nevada and Colorado. But just before that, McCain had not completely given up on the state. On Sunday, October 11 he made a visit to Davenport, where Obama was also scheduled to speak before he cancelled to visit his ailing grandmother. McCain's rally did not go so smoothly, as can be expected with his low popularity. An anti-war protestor infiltrated the crowd and during McCain's speach, she held up a sign that said "War is Over," while yelling, "We want peace!" The security did not get to her before the audience did, who ripped down her sign and tried to silence her.
Money has been a hot topic recently. Last week, Obama broke the historical record for fund raising. $371,088 came from donations in Iowa. McCain has raised only $22,448 in Iowa, which is partially beause of campaign finance.
As the election day gets closer, campaign efforts seem to be inching closer to satellite voting stations at college campuses. John Kerry and Howard Dean stumped for Obama at "early voting rallies" in Des Moines and Ames, which is home to Iowa State.
Local elections this cycle include one U.S. Senate seat between Republican, Christopher Reed, and Democrat and incumbent, Tom Harkin, five U.S. Representative seats, and a majority of state legistlature seats.
A Real Clear Politics poll shows Harkin with 55.8 percent and Reed with only 37.5 percent.
With Obama on the top of the Democratic ticket, the expected large turn out of Democratic voters may also put the state Democrats into office. Obama is not only pushing for a presidential campaign, but is also working to put more Democrats into Congress.
Advertisements in Iowa, as well is in most other battle ground states, were highly negative. Here are a few videos, which have aired in Iowa over the past few weeks.
This ad was sponsored by the DNC:
McCain aired this positive and futuristic ad in just about all 50 states:
The Obama/Biden campaign produced this video:
McCain aired this slightly more negative yet hopeful ad:
Obama is still well ahead in the polls. Pollster.com averages the results with support for Obama at 53.3 percent and for McCain at 41.8 percent. The latest Rasmussen poll on October 23 resulted in a slimmer margin: McCain with 44 percent who would vote for him and Obama with 52 percent. In a second question, Iowans were asked questions to gauge the candidates favorability. The results show Obama with a high favorability rating of 44 percent and a moderate favorability rating of 12 percent and McCain with a high favorability rating of only 28 percent and a moderate favorability rating of 23 percent.
The Rasmussen poll revealed that the issues of the economy, with 44 percent, and national security, with 22 percent are most important to Iowans.
Iowa tends reflects the national sentiments toward both candidates, important issues and the Bush administration. From the 1996 presidential eletion to last cycle, Iowa's state winner has also been the national winner. Iowa seems to be a good representation of the rest of the country and with Obama in the lead here, one could bet that Obama will also take nation.
Last week, McCain's top officials implied that Iowa was no longer a battleground state by stating they would be focusing on other states such as Florida, Nevada and Colorado. But just before that, McCain had not completely given up on the state. On Sunday, October 11 he made a visit to Davenport, where Obama was also scheduled to speak before he cancelled to visit his ailing grandmother. McCain's rally did not go so smoothly, as can be expected with his low popularity. An anti-war protestor infiltrated the crowd and during McCain's speach, she held up a sign that said "War is Over," while yelling, "We want peace!" The security did not get to her before the audience did, who ripped down her sign and tried to silence her.
Money has been a hot topic recently. Last week, Obama broke the historical record for fund raising. $371,088 came from donations in Iowa. McCain has raised only $22,448 in Iowa, which is partially beause of campaign finance.
As the election day gets closer, campaign efforts seem to be inching closer to satellite voting stations at college campuses. John Kerry and Howard Dean stumped for Obama at "early voting rallies" in Des Moines and Ames, which is home to Iowa State.
Local elections this cycle include one U.S. Senate seat between Republican, Christopher Reed, and Democrat and incumbent, Tom Harkin, five U.S. Representative seats, and a majority of state legistlature seats.
A Real Clear Politics poll shows Harkin with 55.8 percent and Reed with only 37.5 percent.
With Obama on the top of the Democratic ticket, the expected large turn out of Democratic voters may also put the state Democrats into office. Obama is not only pushing for a presidential campaign, but is also working to put more Democrats into Congress.
Advertisements in Iowa, as well is in most other battle ground states, were highly negative. Here are a few videos, which have aired in Iowa over the past few weeks.
This ad was sponsored by the DNC:
McCain aired this positive and futuristic ad in just about all 50 states:
The Obama/Biden campaign produced this video:
McCain aired this slightly more negative yet hopeful ad:
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Underdogs ducks out
With Obama rising in the polls in Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico, CNN reported that top officials in the McCain campaign have alluded to pulling resources out of these states to focus on states like Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
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